Summary

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Texas has one of the largest transportation networks and volume of infrastructure in the nation. The highway system alone is estimated to have contributed $3 billion to the economy in the past 50 years. Texas’ population is growing and diversifying. Urban areas such as Dallas Fort Worth, Austin, and Houston are undergoing rapid expansion. As populations grow, more and more people and industries rely on Texas’ vast infrastructure. At the same time, the transportation network is exposed to multiple types of extreme weather hazards. Texas is first in the nation for the number of billion-dollar disasters since 1980. Damaging floods, severe droughts, violet thunderstorms, tornadoes, heat, cold, and tropical storms are all possible each year in the state.

 

While Texans are used to extreme weather, changes in weather patterns and climate conditions are being observed. Projections indicate that future conditions may be outside of the range that Texans have been accustomed to. If these changes are not accounted for, physical infrastructure may not be prepared to withstand future extreme events, leading to higher maintenance costs and reduced lifetimes. Facing these challenges requires planning for the future. By incorporating future projections of weather and climate into planning and design, transportation professionals can prepare the network for a suite of possible hazards. Because transportation investments are often intended to last for decades, many professionals consider these projections critical for designing resilient, cost-effective infrastructure.

 

We used a broad suite of reliable climate data products to project trends in temperature and precipitation extremes of relevance to the transportation sector through the 21st century.

 

Based on our findings, Texas is likely to experience:

 

• Decreasing winter hazards such as extreme cold, freeze thaw cycles, and winter precipitation. Compared to the recent past, and assuming a high degree of climate change, freeze thaw cycles decrease by up to 30% in the far northwest, to over 70% in central and southern portions of the state by the late 21st century.  The frequency of snow and ice decreases by 45-90%, although the average intensity of any given event may not change. In such a scenario, winter temperatures in Dallas become similar to present-day San Antonio.

• An increase in hazards such as heat, drought, and heavy precipitation. Heatwave years like 2011 in north and central Texas become more common, and could be an average bi-annual occurrence in Texas later in the 21st  century. Extreme precipitation also shows a pronounced increase by even mid-century (2050) in most areas of the state. In the Houston area, for example, the expected frequency of the present day 100-year rainfall event could be 15-30 years by 2050.

• Sea levels will continue to rise. Texas loses on average around 180 acres of land per year to rising seas, particularly along the upper coast. Sea level is anticipated to rise 1-4ft by 2100, endangering the billions of dollars of infrastructure and the communities along and near the coastline.

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