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Summary

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Transportation professionals in Oklahoma are accustomed to dealing with the impacts of climate and weather extremes. Each year, the state’s estimated $60 billion transportation sector confronts damage and disruption from hazardous weather conditions. Over time, extreme weather can also degrade infrastructure. Oklahoma is among the top 5 states nationally for the number of billion-dollar weather disasters since 1980. The state’s continental climate, and it’s position in the Great Plains within reach of warm moist air, and cool continental air pre-dispose it to damaging storms, tornadoes, prolonged droughts, interspersed with extreme rains and flooding.

 

While Oklahomans are used to extreme weather, changes in weather patterns and climate conditions are being observed. Projections indicate that future conditions may be outside of the range that Oklahomans have been accustomed to. If these changes are not accounted for, physical infrastructure may not be prepared to withstand future extreme events, leading to higher maintenance costs and reduced lifetimes. Oklahoma’s population is also growing, vehicle miles traveled are increasing, and key state industries are highly reliant on the state’s pivotal transportation assets. Facing these challenges requires planning for the future. By incorporating future projections of weather and climate into planning and design, transportation professionals can prepare the network for a suite of possible hazards. Because transportation investments are often intended to last for decades, many professionals consider these projections critical for designing resilient, cost-effective infrastructure.

 

We used a broad suite of reliable climate data products to project trends in temperature and precipitation extremes of relevance to the transportation sector through the 21st century.

 

Based on our findings, Oklahoma is likely to experience:

 

• A decrease in winter hazards such as extreme cold, freeze thaw cycles, and winter precipitation. Compared to the recent past, and assuming a high degree of environmental change, freeze thaw cycles decrease by up to 50% statewide in the late 21st Century, and the frequency of snow and ice decreases by 60-80%, although the average intensity of any given event does not change. In such a scenario, winter temperatures in Oklahoma City become similar to present-day Dallas.

• An increase in hazards such as heat, drought, and heavy precipitation. Heat wave years resembling 2011 in central Oklahoma become more common, and could be an average bi-annual occurrence in Oklahoma later in the 21st Century. Extreme precipitation also shows a pronounced increase by even mid-century (2050). The expected frequency of the present day 100-year rainfall event could be 20-25 years by the year 2090.

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