Summary

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New Mexico’s transportation network is vital to the state’s economy. This network connects remote communities, traverses diverse topographies, and supports key industries, such as energy, agriculture, freight, and tourism. Transportation professionals in New Mexico are accustomed to dealing with the impacts of climate and weather extremes. Some of the state’s most frequent and damaging hazards include wildfires, severe thunderstorms, flooding, winter storms and extreme cold, heatwaves and drought. These weather conditions degrade and damage the state’s transportation infrastructure assets. Weather-related hazards also pose serious disruptions and safety risks to the millions of people who rely on New Mexico’s transportation network.

 

Changing climate and weather patterns are being observed in New Mexico. In recent decades, the state’s average temperature has risen by 2oF, and the frequency of very hot summer days (> 100oF) has increased. Earlier winter snow-melt, flash flooding, summer drought, and wildfires have also disrupted and damaged communities and their infrastructure. Projections indicate that future conditions may be outside of the range that New Mexico’s citizens have been accustomed to. If these changes are not accounted for, physical infrastructure may not be prepared to withstand future extreme events, leading to higher maintenance costs and reduced lifetimes. Facing these challenges requires planning for the future. By incorporating future projections of weather and climate into planning and design, transportation professionals can prepare the network for a suite of possible hazards. Because transportation investments are often intended to last for decades, many professionals consider these projections critical for designing resilient, cost-effective infrastructure.

 

We used a broad suite of reliable climate data products to project trends in temperature and precipitation extremes of relevance to the transportation sector through the 21st century.

 

Based on our findings, New Mexico is likely to experience:

• Decreasing winter hazards such as extreme cold, freeze thaw cycles, and winter precipitation. Compared to the recent past, and assuming a high degree of climate change, freeze thaw cycles decrease by up to 20% in the northern mountains, to over 50% in central and southern lowland portions of the state by the late 21st century. The frequency of snow and ice decreases by 60-90%, although the average intensity of any given event may not change. This suggests continuing decline of mountain snowpack, with implications for water resources, ecology, and recreation.

• An increase in hazards such as heat, drought, and heavy precipitation. Days with temperatures above 100oF increase by a factor of 3-6 by the late 21st century, where a high degree of climate change could result in 50+ days annually in central and southern valleys. Warming temperatures and reduced snowpack promotes drought, and increased potential for wildfires and dust storms. Extreme precipitation also shows a pronounced increase by even mid-century (2050) in most areas of the state. In the Albuquerque area, for example, the expected frequency of the present day 100-year rainfall event could be 20-25 years by 2050.

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