Summary

 

Arkansas’ transportation network is vital to the state’s economy.  The network connects communities, facilitates tourism and recreation, and is a major thoroughfare for freight. Arkansans are accustomed to dealing with the impacts of climate and weather. The state experiences a wide variety of natural hazard that can damage, disrupt, or delay transportation, from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes, to snow and ice, heat waves, drought and wildfire.

 

While Arkansans are used to extreme weather, changes in weather patterns and climate conditions are being observed. Projections indicate that future conditions may be outside of the range that the region is accustomed to. If these changes are not accounted for, physical infrastructure may not be prepared to withstand future extreme events, leading to higher maintenance costs and reduced lifetimes. Arkansas’ population is also growing, vehicle miles traveled are increasing, and key state industries are highly reliant on the state’s pivotal transportation assets. Facing these challenges requires planning for the future. By incorporating future projections of weather and climate into planning and design, transportation professionals can prepare the network for a suite of possible hazards. Because transportation investments are often intended to last for decades, many professionals consider these projections critical for designing resilient, cost-effective infrastructure.

 

We used a broad suite of reliable climate data products to project trends in temperature and precipitation extremes of relevance to the transportation sector through the 21st century.

 

Based on our findings, Arkansas is likely to experience:

• Decreasing winter hazards such as extreme cold, freeze thaw cycles, and winter precipitation. Compared to the recent past, and assuming a high degree of climate change, freeze thaw cycles decrease by up to 40% in higher elevations of the north and west, and 50-70% in central and southern lowland portions of the state by the late 21st century. The frequency of snow and ice decreases by 30% (north) to 80% (far south) by 2050, and 50-90% by 2090, although the average intensity of any given event may not change.

• An increase in hazards such as heat, drought, and heavy precipitation. Hot days, with temperatures above 95oF, increase in frequency by a factor of 3-6, and annual maximum temperatures could exceed 110oF by the late 21st century. Warming temperatures promote drought, and increased potential for wildfires. More variable future precipitation also manifests in extreme events, as very heavy precipitation also shows a pronounced increase by even mid-century (2050) in most areas of the state. In the Little Rock area, for example, the expected frequency of the historical 100-year rainfall event could be 25-30 years by the year 2050.